The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts that solar power will emerge as the primary driver of electricity generation growth in 2024 and 2025, with the addition of 36 GW and 43 GW of new solar capacity, respectively.

The increase in capacity will elevate the solar share in total generation to 6% in 2024 and 7% in 2025, marking a rise from 4% in 2023.

EIA forecasts that the overall U.S. electricity generation will grow by 3% in 2024 and remain flat in 2025.

Forecasting a rise in generation from solar and, to a lesser extent, wind, EIA expects that electricity generation from coal will decline by 9% in 2024 and by 10% in 2025. This would be due to higher costs than renewables and another 12 GW of coal-fired capacity retiring over the next two years.

The U.S. installed 6.5 GW_dc of solar power capacity in the third quarter of 2023, a 35% year-over-year increase and a 1% rise from the previous quarter, according to the U.S. Solar Market Insight Q4 2023 report by Wood Mackenzie and Solar Energy Industries Association.

Battery storage

EIA predicts that if developers implement all the planned energy storage systems by the scheduled commercial operation dates, the capacity could surge by 89% by the end of 2024.

Most new capacity additions in the rapidly expanding wind and solar sectors are concentrated in two states. California has the highest installed battery storage capacity among all states (7.3 GW), followed by Texas with 3.2 GW.

The surge in variable solar and wind capacity in states like California and Texas is driving the growth of battery storage. In contrast, the remaining states collectively have approximately 3.5 GW of installed battery storage capacity.

As of the end of 2023, the combined planned and operational utility-scale battery capacity in the U.S. stands at around 16 GW. Developers plan to add 15 GW in 2024 and approximately 9 GW in 2025, as indicated by EIA’s latest Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory.

EIA notes that battery storage projects in the U.S. are scaling up in size. Currently, the country’s largest operational battery storage facility is owned by Vistra and situated at Moss Landing in California. It has a capacity of 750 MW.

Developers anticipate bringing over 300 utility-scale battery storage projects online in the United States by 2025, with approximately 50% of the planned installations concentrated in Texas.

The five largest upcoming U.S. battery storage projects slated for deployment in California and Texas in either 2024 or 2025 include Lunis Creek BESS SLF (Texas, 621 MW), Clear Fork Creek BESS SLF (Texas, 600 MW), Hecate Energy Ramsey Storage (Texas, 500 MW), Bellefield Solar and Energy Storage Farm (California, 500 MW), and Dogwood Creek Solar and BESS (Texas, 443 MW).

A U.S. Energy Information Administration report suggested that power developers and project owners could add utility-scale battery storage capacity of up to 30 GW in the U.S. by 2025.