The recent imposition of steep countervailing duties by the U.S. on Indian solar imports is not causing much concern among Indian solar manufacturers, given lower export volumes and their focus on the domestic market.

The U.S. Department of Commerce announced its preliminary determination of countervailing duties of up to 125.87% on crystalline silicon solar cells, whether or not assembled into modules, imported from India.

The investigation found that India exported 232.4 million watts ($83.87 million) of solar cells in 2022, 2.05 billion watts ($760.76 million) in 2023, and 2.3 billion watts ($792.6 million) in 2024.

Domestic manufacturers believe the duties will only have a marginal impact on the industry.

Reacting to the duty imposition, Bengaluru-based Emmvee Photovoltaic Power said its business operations will not be impacted by the U.S. move.

The company said its integrated solar cell and module manufacturing is primarily aligned to domestic demand. “With a strong focus on the Indian market and domestic consumption of its cell output, the company remains insulated from external trade developments of this nature.”

Vinay Rustagi, Chief Business Officer at Premier Energies, said the company has already reduced the share of exports in its business to zero.

“Even for the wider Indian industry, the announcement has little material impact, as Indian manufacturers have had ample time to refine their sales strategies and business models.”

He explained that U.S. policy has been moving steadily toward banning all imports, and the solar manufacturing sector was prepared for the shock as the countervailing duty investigation was initiated in August 2025.

Rustagi said India’s exports to the U.S. fell by more than 50% in 2025 and are currently estimated at only about 5-7% of total Indian production.

Gyanesh Chaudhary, CMD at Vikram Solar, said that the duties apply specifically to Indian-origin cells, and its U.S. order strategy was not structured around sourcing Indian cells.

He added that Vikram Solar already operates with a diversified supply chain for the U.S. market, including sourcing from geographies with lower tariff exposure. “As a result, the direct financial impact on us is limited. “

Even companies exporting to the U.S. market show resilience against tariffs and expect only a short-term impact.

Abhishek Pareek, Group Head Finance at Waaree Energies, said that the company does not anticipate any material adverse impact on its ability to service its U.S. order book, as even in 9M FY 2026, it continued to ramp up its deliveries for U.S. shipments despite the earlier imposition of 50% duty on imports from India.

Waaree has an aggregate U.S. module manufacturing capacity of approximately 2.6 GW, including capacity acquired in connection with the Meyer Burger facility acquisition.

It is also expanding its U.S. manufacturing capacity to approximately 4.2 GW by the end of the current financial year, subject to operational ramp-up timelines and other customary factors.

Abhishek Kaushal, Chief Business Officer at Insolation Energy, believes that the duties could reduce export volumes and put pressure on margins for companies dependent on the U.S. in the short term.

Diversifications of Supply Chain

While Indian manufacturers maintain that their limited exposure to the U.S. market cushions them from the impact of these duties, the U.S. remains the most lucrative export market, often helping balance thinner margins at home.

Pareek said that Waaree’s resilience against U.S. tariffs was enabled by its alternative, diversified supply chains developed over the years. It added that it will continue to strengthen its diversified sourcing strategy, underscored by announced investments in Oman aimed at securing a fully traceable, non-Chinese polysilicon supply.

He added that the company is planning to expand localized manufacturing in the U.S. and diversify its supply chain across geographies to further strengthen its supply chain resilience.

Kaushal noted that the likely tariff imposition is expected to push Indian manufacturers to accelerate diversification into alternative international markets across the Middle East, Europe, Africa, and Southeast Asia.

Tanmoy Duari, CEO at AXITEC Energy India, said that the duties also underline the urgent need for transparent, rules-based trade practices that support the global energy transition rather than hinder it.

He added that India has emerged as a strong and reliable manufacturing hub for high-efficiency solar modules, backed by robust policy support and rapidly advancing technology. “Protectionist measures of this scale could affect project economics in the U.S. market and potentially slow deployment timelines.”

The rationale behind these protectionist measures is the U.S. push to build a domestic solar manufacturing supply chain, similar to India’s approach.

Import duties, the Approved List of Models and Manufacturers (ALMM) requirements, and additional trade barriers have made exporting cells and modules to India increasingly difficult. The June 2026 rollout of ALMM for cells will add another barrier to protect the local manufacturers.

Resilience of the Domestic Market

Manufacturers have been focusing on the domestic market, where demand is rising due to a government mandate requiring the use of locally made cells listed under ALMM.

The Ministry of New and Renewable Energy recently expanded the ALMM by adding 17,268 MW of solar module capacity. The cumulative module manufacturing capacity under ALMM was at 162,109 MW and solar cell manufacturing capacity stands at 26,477 MW.

According to Mercom India’s Q4 and Annual 2025 India Solar Market Update Report, India recorded its highest-ever annual solar capacity addition in the calendar year 2025, installing 36.6 GW, a 43% increase over the 25.6 GW added in 2024.