Tesla Misses Rooftop Solar Installation Target by Big Margin: Report

In a tweet, Tesla refuted the findings of the report


A recent report by Wood Mackenzie said that Tesla Solar Roof achieved 2% of its weekly rooftop solar systems installation target last year due to increasing competition.

After its plans to manufacture 1,000 rooftop solar systems per week in late 2019, the company announced its installation goal of 1,000 systems per week in early 2020.

The Wood Mackenzie report found that the company averaged only 21 installations per week in 2022, with the largest quarter for installations being in early 2022, with 32 systems installed per week.

It also found that the company holds less than 0.03% share in the estimated 5 million rooftop solar systems installed in the U.S. during 2022.


Wood Mac report on tesla-solar-roof-capacity-installed-by-year-2017-2022

Source: Wood Mackenzie

The report is based on data from several states but captures the largest markets, such as California, where most of the rooftop solar systems have been installed.

In response, the electric automaker came out in support of its solar business subsidiary and said, “This is incorrect by a large margin,” on its Twitter account.

The global research and consultancy group estimated that since its launch in 2016, Tesla Solar Roof had installed approximately 3,000 rooftop solar systems with a total capacity of ~30 MW.

Wood Mackenzie claims to have utilized its proprietary project-level datasets to calculate the installation totals for the rooftop solar systems for the first time.

“The Tesla Solar Roof, an innovative roofing system made of glass tiles with embedded photovoltaic cells, attracted considerable attention after its initial launch several years ago. But granular installation data has always been elusive, making it challenging to analyze the product’s growth – until now,” said Max Issokson, research analyst and lead author of Wood Mackenzie’s ‘Five Years In: Tesla Solar Roof deployments miss expectations’ report.

Tesla claimed to have deployed 348 MW of solar in 2022, the highest since 2017. The deployments in the fourth quarter alone stood at 100 MW, an 18% year-over-year growth.

Issokson attributed the increasing competition within the U.S. market, notably from GAF Energy, a residential rooftop solar major, as the reason for Tesla missing its target.

He added, “Other products may take the lead in building-integrated solar roofing products. GAF Energy’s Timberline Solar roofing system is better positioned to achieve widespread adoption. The product is faster and easier to install, and the company captures customers when they are considering roof replacements.”

The report suggests the future potential of Tesla’s Solar Roof would rely on the company’s ability to simplify and streamline installations and gain access to a broader customer base.

The company’s fourth-quarter profit was up 19% year-over-year, with solar and storage business revenues reported at $1.31 billion.