The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has warned that power outages could increase 100 times by 2030 if the country continues to shutter reliable power sources and fails to add additional firm capacity.

The retirement of firm power capacity is exacerbating the resource adequacy challenge, with 104 GW of firm capacity expected to retire by 2030, according to the DOE’s Report on Evaluating U.S. Grid Reliability and Security.

The report follows President Donald Trump’s executive order in April this year, which directed the DOE to establish a uniform methodology for identifying at-risk regions and guide federal reliability interventions.

The report reveals that existing generation retirements and delays in adding new firm capacity, driven by the “radical” green agenda of past administrations, will lead to a surge in power outages and a growing mismatch between electricity demand and supply, particularly from artificial intelligence (AI)-driven data center growth, threatening America’s energy security.

The DOE found that firm capacity is not being replaced on a one-to-one basis. The loss of this generation could cause major outages, particularly during periods when weather conditions limit wind and solar production.

The report noted that such conditions could lead to a hundredfold increase in power outages by 2030. This increase is measured by the “loss of load hours” (LOLH) metric, which represents the hours in a year when demand exceeds available generation. Another key metric used is the “normalized unserved energy” (NUSE), which quantifies the percentage of total energy demand not met during these outage periods. The DOE uses a reliability threshold of a maximum of 2.4 LOLH per year and 0.002% NUSE.

Coal and Gas Retirements

The anticipated retirements include 71 GW from coal and 25 GW from natural gas. These capacities are projected to be offset by 209 GW of new generation by the end of the decade. However, only 22 GW of that new capacity would come from firm baseload sources. The remainder comprises 31 GW of four-hour battery storage, 124 GW of solar energy, and 32 GW of wind power.

The DOE evaluated three scenarios for 2030. The first, called the “plant closures” case, assumes all planned retirements take place and includes only mature generation additions, which refer to completed, under-construction, or fully contracted projects.

The second, the “no plant closures” case, assumes no retirements and includes the same mature additions.

The third scenario, known as the “required build” case, considers the level of ideal capacity needed to restore the system’s reliability to current levels by 2030. In this scenario, DOE uses the “perfect capacity,” a hypothetical ideal resource that is 100% reliable with no outages or performance issues. This helps estimate the amount of additional firm generation each region would need to meet reliability standards.

The report noted that the average year-co-incident peak load is projected to grow from its current average peak of 774 GW to 889 GW by 2030. This represents a 15% increase, equivalent to a 2.3% annual growth rate. Excluding the impact of data centers, this would amount to a 51 GW increase from 774 GW to 826 GW, representing a 1.1% annual growth rate.

According to the report, traditional peak-hour tests to evaluate resource adequacy do not sufficiently account for growing dependence on neighboring grids. At a minimum, modern methods of assessing resource adequacy must incorporate the frequency, magnitude, and duration of power outages, move beyond exclusively analyzing peak load periods, and develop integrated models to enable proper analysis of the increasing reliance on neighboring grids.

Regional Analysis

The Midcontinent Independent System Operator region remained reliable in both the current system and the scenario without project closures, although minimum spare capacity fell below zero, indicating a reliance on imports. In the project closure scenario, the region experienced significant shortfalls, exceeding all reliability limits. Peak electricity demand is expected to grow from 130 GW to 140 GW by 2030, including 6 GW of new data center demand. Capacity drops from 228 GW to 196 GW in the closure case. Coal and natural gas retirements are replaced by solar, wind, and battery storage. The system includes 3 GW of rooftop solar and 8 GW of demand-side flexibility.

The Independent System Operator of New England maintained reliability in all cases. The absence of projected artificial intelligence or data center load helped keep the system stable. Peak demand increases from 28 GW to 31 GW. Installed capacity rises to 45.5 GW without closures and 42.8 GW with closures. Natural gas and oil generation decline as solar, wind, and battery storage grow. The system includes nearly 2 GW of rooftop solar and 1.6 GW of energy storage.

The New York Independent System Operator experienced no major reliability issues in any scenario. Even in the case of plant closures, the average annual hours of load loss and unserved energy remained well below critical thresholds. Peak demand increases slightly from 36 GW to 38 GW, with no additional artificial intelligence or data center load expected. Capacity grows to 51 GW without closures and 50 GW with closures. Natural gas declines, with solar and wind providing most of the new additions. The system includes 6 GW of rooftop solar and nearly 1 GW of demand-side flexibility.

The Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland Interconnection faces the most significant reliability challenges. Even without project closures, the system sees 214 hours of expected annual power outages and peak shortfalls of 17,620 MW. With project closures, outages jump to over 430 hours per year, and unserved energy rises to more than 70 times the acceptable level. The region requires 10,500 MW of additional firm generation by 2030. Peak demand increases from 162 GW to 187 GW, with 15 GW attributed to artificial intelligence and data centers. Capacity reaches 254 GW without closures and 237 GW with closures. Coal and natural gas retirements are largely being replaced by solar energy. The system includes 9 GW of rooftop solar and 7 GW of demand response.

The Southeastern Electric Reliability Council remains mostly reliable. However, its eastern subregion shows growing winter reliability risks. One extreme weather event caused 42 hours of outages. The eastern region needs 500 MW of additional firm capacity by 2030. Regional peak demand increases from 193 GW to 209 GW, with an extra 7.5 GW attributed to data centers. Capacity grows to 279 GW without closures and 260 GW with closures. The energy mix shifts from coal and natural gas to solar and limited storage. Rooftop solar and demand response total 3 GW and 8 GW, respectively.

The Southwest Power Pool experienced growing reliability problems. Without project closures, the average annual outage reaches 48 hours, with shortfalls affecting up to 19% of the demand. With closures, system performance deteriorates, especially in the northern region, which lacks sufficient generation and transmission capacity. To restore reliability, 1,500 MW of additional firm generation is needed by 2030. Peak demand increases from 57 GW to 63 GW, including 1.5 GW from data centers. Capacity reaches 110 GW without closures and 103 GW with closures. Coal and gas retirements are replaced by wind, solar, storage, and some natural gas. There is almost no rooftop solar, and demand response reaches 1.3 GW.

The case in the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) plus remained mostly reliable in all but the project closures case. There, reliability deteriorated during summer evenings when solar declines. Annual outage hours rose to 7, and the worst year saw up to 31% of demand unmet. Unserved energy exceeded accepted limits. Peak demand increases from 79 GW to 82 GW, with an additional 2 GW attributed to data centers. Capacity grows to 131 GW without closures and 123 GW with closures. Coal, gas, and nuclear retirements are offset by the growth of solar and storage. The system includes 10 GW of solar rooftop and less than 1 GW of demand response.

West Non-CAISO performed adequately, but reliability dropped in the plant closures case. Some areas saw outages in up to 20% of hours during the worst year, especially where local resources and transmission were limited. Peak demand increases from 92 GW to 119 GW, with 12 GW from data centers. Capacity grows from 178 GW to 207 GW without closures and 193 GW with closures. The mix shifts from coal and natural gas to solar, wind, and storage. The system includes 6 GW of rooftop solar and over 1 GW of demand response.

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas already exceeds reliability limits in the current system, with 3.8 hours of expected outages and unserved energy above standards. Conditions worsen in both future scenarios, especially in winter. In the case of project closures, outages rise to 45 hours annually, and up to 27% of demand remains unmet in extreme conditions. Texas requires 10,500 MW of additional firm generation by 2030. Peak demand increases from 90 GW to 105 GW, with 8 GW from data centers. Capacity grows from 157 GW to 213 GW without closures and 208 GW with closures. Natural gas and coal retirements are replaced by solar, wind, and storage. The system includes 2.5 GW of rooftop solar and 3.5 GW of demand response.

Trump recently signed an executive order directing the Secretary of the Treasury to terminate the clean electricity production and investment tax credits for wind and solar facilities and implement the enhanced foreign entity of concern restrictions identified in the ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’ Act.