India’s National Load Despatch Centre (NLDC) has forecast that energy shortages will be more pronounced from April to October with the most significant shortages to be recorded in May. The unmet demand during the non-solar hours could exceed 15 GW between April and September.

The Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) during the year will likely be 5.8%, and the Normalized Energy Not Served (NENS), 0.17% in the best-case scenario. In the median scenario (the most likely scenario), the LOLP is 12.1%, and the NENS is 0.37%, according to the NLDC report published by the Grid Controller of India.

The LOLP is forecast at a high of 31.05% in May, followed by June at 20.14% in the median case scenario.

 

LOLP indicates how often a system cannot meet the electricity load demand. NENS is a metric that indicates the magnitude and duration of energy not being served and expressed in megawatt hours.

Winter shortages are expected in February 2026, particularly during early morning and late evening hours.

India experienced its hottest February since 1901, with the national mean temperature recorded at over 22 degrees. The Indian Meteorological Department has forecast a heat wave in many parts of the country between March and May, raising concerns about how the country will meet the expected surge in demand for electricity this summer.

Power demand has risen over the last few years thanks to heightened industrial activity and adverse climate. The Central Electricity Authority has predicted that India’s peak demand could cross 270 GW in 2025.

 

 

Power Minister Manohar Lal recently said that until January in the current fiscal year, India had met the power demand of 250 GW and that the expected peak demand of 270 GW would be met.

The shortage in meeting peak demand had reduced from 4.5% in 2014 to 1.4% in 2024. “In the current fiscal year, we had a shortage of merely 0.001% while meeting the power demand,” said Lal.

Shifting Planned Outages

The Resource Adequacy report recommends a strategic shift of planned thermal outages from the high-shortage period between April and July 2025 to the lower-demand months from November 2025 to January 2026 to improve system reliability.

Significant periods of unserved energy (unmet demand) will be observed during May and June when higher energy demand occurs with variability in renewable energy supply. During winter, energy shortages are predominantly observed in the morning and late evening hours, corresponding to increased domestic and commercial energy usage and reduced solar energy availability.

In the median case scenario, unmet demand will be predominantly observed during the non-solar hours of April, May, June, July, and September, often exceeding 15 GW. In January and February 2026, high unserved energy is expected during morning and evening ramp-up periods.

Optimizing Energy Storage

The Resource Adequacy report emphasizes the importance of integrating flexible generation resources to enhance system adequacy and mitigate supply shortages. As a key strategy to strengthen grid stability, it recommends optimizing battery energy storage systems (BESS) and pumped storage projects (PSP) charge-discharge cycles, particularly charging during solar hours (10 – 16 hours) and discharging during demand peaks.

Effectively utilizing spinning reserves (backup power) can address short-term shortages, particularly during high-risk periods. The spinning reserve requirement of 3% of all India demand should be strategically deployed whenever shortages are observed to provide immediate system support.

The report has cautioned that delays in BESS and PSP deployment could exacerbate energy shortages, particularly during high-demand and non-solar hours.

The findings indicate that gas-based generation utilization increases significantly during peak demand periods, but high variable costs result in lower economic viability than other generation sources. Ensuring adequate gas availability during critical shortage periods and implementing cost-based dispatch optimization strategies can enhance system adequacy while maintaining economic efficiency.

Close monitoring of envisaged capacity additions, including 45,878 MW of renewable energy, 17,760 MW of thermal generation, 3,275 MW of hydroelectric generation, 3.9 MW of BESS, and 2.7 MW of PSP, will be crucial to timely commissioning of generation resources.

The report calls for directions under Section 11 of the Electricity Act for imported coal-based thermal stations. Given their higher generation costs, these stations are generally dispatched less frequently. However, during periods of system stress, their optimal utilization can play a crucial role in meeting peak demand.

Section 11 is an emergency provision under which the appropriate government may specify that a generating company must operate and maintain any generating station per the directions of that government. The Union and state governments have invoked this measure in recent years.