Off-grid solar solutions provided electricity access to 149 million people globally in 2025, up 26% from 118 million in 2023, according to a report by World Bank Group’s Energy Sector Management Assistance Program and GOGLA.

The off-grid segment requires an estimated $11.4 billion from 2027 to 2030 to provide electricity access to 398 million people for whom off-grid solar is the least cost electrification option. Corporate financing remained largely unchanged at $315 million in 2025.

Sales and Electricity Access

Of the 149 million people served by off-grid solar products sold by GOGLA-affiliated companies, 83 million received Tier 1 electricity access, 15 million received Tier 2 access, and 52 million received basic lighting services through solar lanterns.

Global affiliate sales rose approximately 12% from 10.7 million units in 2023 to 12 million in 2025. From 2024 to 2025, sales of small solar home systems increased 40.1%, while sales of large systems grew 50.1%. Solar lantern sales declined from 5.5 million units in 2023 to 5.1 million in 2025.

East and Southern Africa accounted for approximately 60% of global affiliate sales, with volumes rising 51% from 2023 to 2025. Ethiopia recorded a 290% increase, followed by Zambia at 225%, Uganda at 158%, Tanzania at 85%, and Kenya at 61%. Kenya remained the largest market, with 2.4 million units sold in 2025. Nigeria accounted for 13% of global affiliate sales.

Pay-as-you-go (PAYG) financing accounted for 48% of sales made by GOGLA-affiliated companies in 2025, increasing from 39% in 2023. It represented more than two-thirds of solar home system sales.

In 2023, the off-grid solar sector had impacted 561 million people globally, with 253 million gaining basic electricity access and 132 million benefitting from higher levels.

Affordability Constraints

Only 33% of households without electricity access could afford an unsubsidized entry-level Tier 1 solar home system through PAYG financing, while another 32% could afford one with financial difficulty. The estimate assumes a $90 system paid for over 12 months. A 15% price increase would reduce the share of households able to afford the system to 28%; a corresponding price reduction would raise it to 40%.

Serving remote households costs approximately 23% more than serving densely populated areas because of logistics costs, financing expenses, and repayment risks. Currency depreciation also affected affordability in Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Malawi.

Alternative models include energy-as-a-service (EaaS), battery rentals, and installment purchases. Under certain subsidy and financing conditions, EaaS providers could offer electricity services for $2.50 to $4 per month, compared with approximately $7 under unsubsidized PAYG models. Commercial viability at scale remains unproven.

Affordability also restricts productive-use equipment. Solar water pumps costing approximately $843 to $966 are affordable to 16% of their addressable market. Solar refrigerators priced at $782 to $1,186 are affordable to 13%, while solar mills costing $766 to $1,116 are affordable to 7%.

Private and Public Financing

Sun King, d.light, and Ignite Energy Access accounted for approximately 70% of corporate financing in the off-grid solar segment during 2024 and 2025. In 2025, the market leaders raised $109 million in debt, $50 million in equity, and $49 million in off-balance-sheet financing.

Debt financing for small and mid-sized companies fell from $175 million during 2022 and 2023 to $79 million during 2024 and 2025. Equity financing declined 38% to $74 million over the same periods. Locally owned companies received 3.1% of corporate financing in 2025, and women-led companies received 2.4%.

The World Bank Group committed $974 million to off-grid solar in financial years 2025 and 2026, broadly unchanged from 2023 and 2024. The share of results-based financing (RBF) for household electrification and productive-use equipment rose from 24% during 2017 to 2021 to 41% during 2022 to 2026.

Cumulative RBF commitments reached $1.2 billion across 92 programs by June 2026, with the World Bank accounting for 78.8%. Subsidy disbursement delays sometimes extended to 18 months, creating liquidity challenges for companies.

Product Reliability and Policy

Approximately 95% of quality-verified Tier 1 solar home systems (SHS) remained functional more than four years after purchase across Kenya, Madagascar, and Nigeria, based on a survey of 458 customers. However, 38% experienced at least one technical issue, and only 36% of those customers were satisfied with repair or replacement services.

Among the surveyed customers, 72% reported energy expenditure savings after installing solar home systems. They used the savings for food, education, healthcare, and business expansion.

Among the 42 assessed countries, the share offering duty or tax exemptions for standalone solar systems increased from 57% in 2020 to 69% in 2023. Countries with national programs involving private-sector participation increased from 74% to 88%. Those offering consumer financing rose from 40% to 57%, while countries subsidizing low-income households increased from 38% to 48%.

As of 2026, 28 countries had adopted quality standards harmonized with International Electrotechnical Commission requirements, and 11 mandated compliance for legal imports. Countries with environmental regulations for solar equipment disposal increased from 26% to 29% between 2020 and 2023.

Funding Requirements

The estimated $11.4 billion financing requirement from 2027 to 2030 includes $4.2 billion in affordability subsidies, $900 million in grants, $2.5 billion in equity, and $3.8 billion in debt. Annual requirements are approximately $1.3 billion in grants and subsidies and $1.6 billion in equity, debt, and receivables financing.

Annual public investment in off-grid solar for social infrastructure would need to increase from approximately $120 million to $400 million by 2028. This could increase annual private investment from $20 million to $200 million through concessional financing, guarantees, and RBF.

Outlook

The off-grid solar sector is prioritizing profitability over rapid customer acquisition, while affordability challenges, currency volatility, and rising costs continue to constrain growth. Significant price reductions remain unlikely in the near term.

The report recommends increased public funding, predictable results-based financing, improved subsidies, local-currency debt, and equity support for smaller companies. It also calls for stable fiscal incentives, stronger repair services, extended warranties, and support for productive-use solar applications. Energy-as-a-service models could help expand electricity access in remote areas.