Solar capacity additions in Africa are projected to reach 17 GW in 2026, clocking a 45% year-over-year (YoY) rise amid a surge in Chinese solar panel imports to the continent, according to a recent report by Ember.

The figure implies an installation rate of around 100,000 solar panels or 47 MW of solar capacity each day in 2026.

Three-quarters of the capacity additions were distributed solar.

China’s solar panel exports to Africa reached 23 GW through 12 months to June 2026, up 53% YoY. Chinese exports to Africa matched those to the Middle East and Latin America. China exported 23 GW each to Africa and the Middle East and, 25 GW to Latin America during the period.

Only 6% of the solar panels installed in Africa were manufactured domestically in small plants in countries like South Africa, Nigeria, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia and Kenya. The remaining are imported from China, the report added.

Egypt, Tanzania Exports for U.S. Markets

According to the report, Africa’s solar panel manufacturing output is likely to quadruple in 2026, supported by new plant capacity in Egypt and Tanzania. These plants are expected to raise solar panel manufacturing output to 3,500 MW, up from around 800 MW in 2025. At 2,000 MW, Egypt is likely to contribute the lion’s share, followed by Tanzania at 500 MW and 1,000 MW from six other countries.

However, the solar panels manufactured in both Egypt and Tanzania are predominantly for export to the U.S., where African solar panels fetch much higher prices than Chinese panels due to tariffs. The panels installed in Africa are predominantly Chinese imported panels.

 

Citing Egyptian customs data, Ember said Egypt’s solar panel exports to the U.S. ramped up to 48 MW by April 2026, although U.S. data reported no imports from Egypt over the period.

In the first half of 2026, Chinese cell and wafer exports to Egypt stood at 2.4 GW.

Meanwhile, six other countries have been manufacturing solar panels on a smaller scale. The number has been rising as more manufacturing facilities come online and expand. The report estimates that solar panel manufacturing output in South Africa and Nigeria will triple from 2024 levels by 2026.

Morocco and Algeria are also projected to double their 2024 output.

Record Solar Installations

The report estimates that 36 out of Africa’s 54 countries are expected to install record amounts of solar energy solutions in 2026. The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Zimbabwe, and Egypt were among the 19 countries on the continent that recorded over 100% YoY growth in solar installations.

Projections also suggest solar will be the biggest addition to grid capacity in nations like Senegal and Kenya.

Between 2023 and 2026, 10 African countries are expected to add at least 1 GW of solar capacity.  In 2026, South Africa is expected to install 3.3 GW of solar capacity, Egypt 2 GW, DRC 1.7 GW, Algeria 1.4 GW and Morocco 1 GW.

Solar Effect on Africa’s Diesel Imports

The US-Iran conflict and the removal of subsidies in countries like Nigeria and Egypt have led to a sharp rise in retail diesel prices. Diesel generators are common across many African countries that face unreliable electricity supply.

The report notes that owners of diesel generators are installing solar to reduce diesel spending and expects a significant amount of off-grid diesel generation to be replaced by solar.

The development is also likely to cut down imports, given how the import cost of Chinese solar panels is a fraction of that of imported diesel.

By the end of 2025, the Africa Solar Industry Association was tracking more than 42,000 solar projects across Africa. These projects represented a total identified pipeline of 296 GW, of which 23.4 GW was already operational.

In July, the National Energy Regulator of South Africa approved generation licenses for four solar projects with a combined contracted capacity of 890 MW.