100 Percent EVs by 2030 Can Create $300 Billion Market for EV Batteries in India
November 27, 2017
India could account for more than one-third of the global market for electric vehicle (EV) batteries by 2030 if it becomes a 100% EV nation, found a study conducted by the Niti Aayog and Rocky Mountain Institute. The study also revealed that India’s market for EV batteries alone could be worth as much as $300 billion (~₹19.38 trillion) from 2017 to 2030.
The study also found that, batteries today account for about one-third of the total purchase price of an EV. To drive down battery costs, production must be scaled, and battery components need to be standardized to be a key element in the long-term success of India’s automotive sector.
In turn, India’s EV mission could drive down global battery prices by as much as 16 percent to $60 (~₹3876) per kWh. Given the projected scale of its domestic market, India could support global-scale manufacturing facilities and eventually become an export hub for battery production.
Analysis by NITI Aayog and the Rocky Mountain Institute indicates that domestic battery manufacturing to supply the transition to EVs is an important market opportunity for the Indian economy. It would bring economic and social benefits from reduced oil imports, improved public health, and increased integration of renewable energy supplies into the electric grid.
According to the analysis, it has been estimated that 25 to 40 percent of the total economic opportunity represented by battery manufacturing for India’s EV market can be captured in India even under the least favorable scenario, where India imports all lithium-ion cells and assembles these cells into battery packs.
India’s cumulative battery requirements between 2026 and 2030 could be at least 2,410 GWh. If India can manufacture both cells and packs while importing only cathodes (depending on technology used), India stands to capture nearly 80 percent of the total economic opportunity, an economic value of ₹9.3–13.7 trillion (~143.68-211.6 billion).
By developing battery manufacturing expertise and scaling its domestic production capacity, India can build long-lasting economic advantage in this key sector. If India develops a battery manufacturing marketplace under the Make in India program, 100 percent domestic manufacturing of batteries would require at least 3,500 GWh of batteries at a wholesale cost of $300 billion (~₹19.38 trillion) from 2017-2030 – less than half the cost of what would have been spent on importing oil.
To advance the Make in India program, shifting to electric vehicles and batteries allows India to become its own supplier of energy for transportation (electricity produced in India) and a leading manufacturer of the batteries used to store and transport that energy.
India’s electric mobility ambitions could drive global battery demand and manufacturing capacity higher and prices even lower than projected in previous analyses. NITI Aayog and RMI estimate that India would require a minimum of 20 gigafactory-scale battery manufacturing plants, collectively producing approximately 800 GWh of batteries per year by 2030 to support 100 percent EV sales across all types of personal vehicles.
Domestic manufacturing of batteries and EV components could help India’s OEM and technology companies to capitalize on the nation’s aggressive vehicle electrification goals, bolstering India’s competitiveness on the global stage.
The scale of its market opportunity is attracting strong interest from leading companies in India and globally.
Image credit: RMI
Saumy is a senior staff reporter with MercomIndia.com covering business and energy news since 2016. Prior to Mercom, Saumy was a copy editor at Thomson Reuters. Saumy earned his Bachelors Degree in Journalism & Mass Communication from the Manipal Institute of Communication at Manipal University. More articles from Saumy Prateek.